So it’s NBA Playoff Prediction time at The Floor Seats, & this year features about as strong a class of playoff teams as any in NBA history.
About the only year as good as this had to be the ’93 playoffs.
In 1993 you had the last run of Jordan’s 1st 3-peat team in the East, & an exciting Suns team came out of the West. The Knicks-Bulls conference final that year was one of the best 6-game series ever, & the East was peppered with fun teams to watch like the young Hornets, the fading Cavs, & the unpredictable Nets.
The Hornets had Alonzo Mourning & Larry Johnson, the Cavs had that core of Price-Ehlo-Daugherty-Hot Rod Williams-Nance, & the Nets had the late Drazen Petrovic & Derrick Coleman. I was at the Game 5 the Cavs won to take their 1st round series with the Nets…who knew that was the best we’d ever see from Coleman, & the last we’d ever see of Petrovic at all? (Petrovic was killed on the Autobon in Germany the following summer)
The ’93 Lakers pushed the Suns to 5 games in the 1st round that year (back then, the 1st round series’ were only 5 games), while the Seattle-Houston 2nd round was a memorable 7-game epic. The Sonics had Kemp & The Glove (Gary Payton) & Nate McMillan, while Houston had a fantastic core of The Dream (Olajuwon)-Jet (Kenny Smith)-Otis Thorpe-Mad Max(Cedric Maxwell). The Rockets would go on to win the next 2 NBA titles, & the Sonics came out of the West in ’96 with that same core from ’93.
About the only other year that came close was the 2008 playoffs. That year featured the greatest talent from any 1 conference, as the West was just amazing that season. The Western Conference was so stacked that year that the Golden State Warriors couldn’t even get in with a 48-34 record! Yes, that’s right. 48 wins (14 games above .500) is not good enough for even the 8th spot in your own conference. This is still the only time in NBA history a team with 48 wins or better failed to make the playoffs – shows you how tough the West was in ’08.
[Start tangent]
Who were the Warriors that year you ask? They were loaded & a ton of fun to watch with Baron Davis at his peak tossing the ball to Monta Ellis, Jason Richardson, & Stephen Jackson. Golden State was also fresh off stunning Dallas as an 8 seed the year before in the ’07 playoffs, when the Mavs were the reigning conference champs.
[End of tangent]
The ’08 West playoffs featured a 1st round Suns-Spurs (Duncan v. Shaq, Parker v. Nash) that went 5 good games, then the Lakers had 6 super-close games with the Jazz, back when Boozer & Ashton (Kyle Korver) were in their prime. Spurs-Hornets went 7 games in the other 2nd round battle (back when CP3 was the next big thing – too bad he suffered that knee injury & has never really looked the same since). In the conference final, Spurs-Lakers only went 5, but the games were tough for the most part and the amount of talent on the floor at one time was incredible.
In the East that year you had 3 amazing series, all involving the Celtics. Boston pushed its luck with 7 game series against Atlanta & Cleveland, where we saw Rajon Rondo blossom into a star in a matter of several weeks. The Celtics had a brutal series with the Pistons, then used the greatest zone defense ever seen to shut down Kobe & the Lakers in the Finals.
I often wonder how different that Lakers’ series would have been had it taken place in Jordan’s era of the 90s when zone was illegal, and guys who could slash to the basket like MJ & Kobe had their way. The Celtics were the consummate “team” that year, getting star production from the Big 3 (KG, Pierce & Ray) & from Rondo. Plus, big shot guys like Posey and Eddie House were huge for them, & “Trick-Or-Treat” (Tony Allen) was magnificent defensively against Kobe. They also had clutch performances from players we never really heard from again, like Leon Powe & P.J. Brown. I’d love to see another Lakers-Celtics rematch this year (foreshadowing?).
Onto the 2011 playoff predictions:
East
1 CHI v. 8 IND: 4-0 Bulls
Rose should be able to do whatever he wants, & Danny Granger will be hounded by Boozer & Noah every time he tries to go inside.
2 MIA v. 7 PHI: 4-0 Heat
Heat will be able to get out & run, & should have an easy time with the Sixers young & banged up core. This easy win could cause a major problem for the Heat, b/c such a cake series may give them a false sense of security. Worse, they could slip back into their old ways of looking to get most of their points in transition. Those opportunities to run will dry up against a team that uses lots of halfcourt sets like Boston or Chicago.
3 BOS v. 6 NYK: 4-1 Celtics
Boston’s experience & defense should make this a short series. However, if Melo or Amare get hot, this could be trouble for Boston. If both of those stars get hot, the Celtics could get sent packing.
The odds are that the Knicks’ lack of defense and team identity will cost them, & the Celtics know how to win in the playoffs. The stats say that Boston’s defense has been about the same since the Perkins trade, though I’m not sure that will translate to the playoffs.
The Celtics’ big problem is that Jeff Green has not played well since coming to Boston, & the offense has struggled with him in it. Still, I have faith in this unit’s ability to sort things out through the 1st round & early part of the 2nd.
The center position is a mess without Kendrick Perkins & likely without Shaq, but the bench was really struggling to score before the trade. If Jesus Shuttlesworth (Ray Allen) or Pierce has an off night, at least now they have a guy who started for OKC & put up 15 pts a game there ready to come off the bench & hopefully produce for Boston.
4 ORL v. 5 ATL: 4-1 Magic
Orlando is a wildly inconsistent team that runs a perimeter high school offense: Put Dwight in the paint, & when somebody doubles him, at least 1 of the 3 or 4 shooters camping out on the 3-pt. line should be open & able to knock it down. The problem with that strategy is lately teams have figured out if you single Dwight (don’t double cover him), he’ll get 35 pts. & the rest of the team won’t hurt you.
The Hawks seem to do this the best, but with their 6-game slide heading into the playoffs & Orlando giving the Bulls all they could handle (minus Howard in that game btw), I think the Magic will crush Atlanta’s will by the 2nd or 3rd game.
Sure Orlando has struggled against the Hawks, but will that translate to the playoffs, where the Hawks have been miserable & the Magic have gone far the last few years? I doubt it.
West
1 SA v. 8 MEM: 4-3 Grizzlies
I know this is a huge upset pick, but I really like this match-up for the Grizz. They played the Spurs tough, splitting their 4 games this year & Ginobili could be out or dinged for most of the series. He’ll likely be out of Game 1, & the Spurs are getting older by the day.
The Grizz finished the season playing really well, winning 8 of 10 before basically tanking the last 2 games so they could face the Spurs instead of the Lakers or Mavs. I don’t blame them – San Antonio will only have 1 clear advantage (besides coaching), & that’s Tony Parker against Mike Conley. The Grizz can sic Trick or Treat on Ginobili (if he plays) or Jefferson, & that should slow down the Spurs quite a bit. Z-Bo (Randolph) should wear down the aging Duncan, & Marc Gasol is a quality center who should give the Spurs fits.
2 LAL v. 7 NO: 4-0 Lakers
The Lakers looked totally disinterested down the stretch, & will get bounced early if they try to save their energy for the later rounds. Still, this team has shown time & again it can flip the switch at playoff time & produce. At some point toying with Game 7s (against OKC last year, HOU the year before) will catch up with the Lakers.
Hopefully LA will realize how badly it needs extra days off & will finish the Hornets quickly, who already are without David West. Unless Chris Paul turns back the clock & plays like he did a couple years ago, this should be a short series.
3 DAL v. 6 POR: 4-3 Mavs
Most people have Portland here, but the Blazers lack a finisher & veteran success in the playoffs. Yes they are supremely athletic & can beat you with about 7 different guys, but which one really wants the ball to take the game winning shot? I ask b/c just about every one of these games is probably going to be really close, & the Mavs ooze playoff experience. Kidd & Jet (Jason Terry) will take & make that shot, & Dirk is a great finisher (though his passive style of fading away from contact will probably cost his team in the later rounds).
LaMarcus Aldridge is a star in the making, but Dirk is the only true stud in this series & should play well against another finesse team. Everyone talks about how deep the Blazers are, but most teams only play 7-8 guys in postseason games, so the value of a great bench usually decreases from the regular season to the playoffs.
The Blazers are still trying to figure out how to utilize Brandon Roy & run the offense through Andre Miller, while the Mavs know their team identity well (strengths & weaknesses, starters, style of play, etc.).
4 OKC v. 5 DEN: 4-3 Thunder
Much like SA-MEM & DAL-POR, this is somewhat of a coin-flip series: Depending on a few shots, this battle could go either way.
The Thunder have a fantastic interior defense now with Perk/Ibaka/Durant, & Westbrook should eat Lawson or Felton for lunch. Still, where are the Thunder going to get scoring from when Durant or Westbrook have an off night? Being so heavily dependent on 2 guys is a recipe for disaster, & the only reason I have them outlasting Denver is OKC still has the only closer in the series in Durant.
The Nuggets will be even better next year, but much like the Blazers, have 6 or 7 quality fringe-starter guys rather than 1-2 dependable stars. Having several borderline-starter-type players doesn’t help you as much in the playoffs b/c you can only put 5 on the floor at 1 time.
Gallinari has range, & J.R. Smith is the classic “irrational confidence guy” (As Bill Simmons says, the player who’s confidence exceeds his talent, but you need this player sometimes to knock down a shot in important games). But do you really want to be dependent on somebody like Gallinari or Smith to make the game winner for you? Smith can usually create his own shot, but this won’t be a piece of cake against Westbrook. Worse, none of the Nuggets can command a double team, so very rarely will a Denver player be left wide open to take a critical shot.
[Start of tangent]
Everyone remembers the Jordan-to-Paxson or Jordan-to-Kerr shots in the NBA Finals right? That’s another example of the value of having an elite player – he demands a double team, so that even your stiffs can be quality players b/c you’re only asking them to hit wide-open, spot up jump shots. This is why guys like Jeff Hornacek & Dan Majerle played forever – they could still shoot the lights out if you left them wide open.
Majerle could probably still go for 15 pts. a game if his feet could hold up enough to let him move on defense. On good teams that only need a guy to shoot open jump shots, players today like Shuttlesworth or Ashton could easily score well into their early 40s if they’re still able to move their feet on defense.
[End of tangent]
So, to recap, here are my 1st round picks:
East:
1 CHI v. 8 IND: 4-0 Bulls
2 MIA v. 7 PHI: 4-0 Heat
3 BOS v. 6 NYK: 4-1 Celtics
4 ORL v. 5 ATL: 4-1 Magic
West
1 SA v. 8 MEM: 4-3 Grizzlies
2 LAL v. 7 NO: 4-0 Lakers
3 DAL v. 6 POR: 4-3 Mavs
4 OKC v. 5 DEN: 4-3 Thunder
I’ll do an-depth 2nd round preview when we get there, along with commentary before the conference finals & NBA Finals. Still, I don’t want to leave loyal fans of The Floor Seats without my predictions for the 2nd round & beyond.
Predicting later rounds is very difficult b/c of potential injuries, suspensions, or big changes to lineups, so I’ll spare you all the analysis & just make some basic predictions for now. As mentioned above, I’ll come back & give you a full preview of the teams we know are in the 2nd round once the 1st round comes to a close. Enjoy!
East:
1 CHI v. 4 ORL: 4-2 Bulls
Both these teams are rather volatile, but the Bulls have more talent & a consistent offense. Orlando can beat anybody by 20 on a given night, but can they do that for an entire series against a legit defense? I doubt it. They rely too heavily on the 3 ball, & the 1 thing you can never predict as a basketball player is when your shot will leave you. Some nights your shot is just going to be a little off for most of the night, & at that point you have to hope your teammates come through for you.
The Bulls depend so much on Rose, Boozer, Noah & Korver, & none of these guys has a history of success in the playoffs. The Bulls play hard, but so does everybody else in the playoffs. The Bulls could easily get bounced here, but Rose’s talent & Thibodeau’s defense should carry them through to the conference finals.
2 MIA v. 3 BOS: 4-3 Celtics
Miami will likely be a beast the next few years, but this year they have too many gaping holes to beat a complete team like the Celtics. Rondo will have his way with Bibby, & KG will outplay Bosh.
Boston’s team defense should have just enough to slow down LBJ (LeBron) & Wade too. Wade often falls awkwardly & has a high-injury risk, & Bosh is a 4 (PF) who plays like a 3 (SF). The Haslem/Z/Joel Anthony rotation at center won’t be much help, & the Heat have no bench.
If Miami can free up some cap this summer, trade Bosh & Mike Miller for some pieces next year & draft a PG, they will be almost impossible to stop down the road. But right now, they just don’t have the horses to compete with a team that knows how to win now in the playoffs.
West:
4 OKC v. 8 MEM: 4-2 Thunder
This won’t be easy for OKC, especially with all the pressure on them for the 1st time to deliver. The general public is largely ignorant of Memphis’ talent, & therefore will expect the Thunder to win this series easily.
It will be interesting to see how OKC reacts to finally being booed at home & being roughed up on defense inside, as Z-Bo won’t mind banging down low against Perk & Ibaka. The Thunder will blossom before our eyes & prove they probably have the talent to win it all this year.
2 LAL v. 3 DAL: 4-3 Lakers
The Lakers should have some rest from the fortunate Hornets draw in round 1, but Dallas will likely be a handful in round 2. The Mavs are full of guys knowing this is probably their last rodeo (Kidd, Jet, maybe even Dirk & Berea as Dallas players), so never count them out. LA should have just enough skill & experience to get by another older half-court team.
Conference Finals:
1 CHI v. 3 BOS: 4-3 Celtics
This could easily go either way, but I think Boston’s composure & playoff experience has just enough to get by a hungry Bulls team. Thibodeau’s knowledge of the Celtics & time to prepare could be a major problem for Boston, but at this stage star talent & playoff experience usually win out over the course of a 7-game series.
Everyone is talking about Boston lacking home court, but much like the Lakers, the Celtics are a veteran team that plays very well on the road.
2 LAL v. 4 OKC: 4-3 Lakers
This is another coin-flip series, but the Lakers found a way to slip by the Thunder last year, & should match up against them well again.
Bynum should neutralize Perk & Gasol should score quite a bit on Ibaka. Kobe is having a really hard time creating his own shot anymore, but Shannon Brown & Matt Barnes have been great at scoring in the playoffs so they should help Kobe along a bit.
Artest should slow down Durant, which leaves Westbrook as the Thunder’s key advantage. Sure he can blow by Fisher, but will Ibaka & Perk score enough when Bynum & Gasol leave them to challenge Westbrook in the paint? This will ask Ibaka & Perk to change their offensive identity – a tall order this late in the season. Scott Brooks is a nice coach on the rise, but Phil has been great lately in the postseason.
NBA Finals
2 LAL v. 3 BOS: 4-3 Lakers
This is what everyone wanted, right? I’m sure Bulls-Thunder or Heat-Thunder would excite a lot of people who want to see something new, but if you want high-level veteran basketball between the NBA’s 2 most storied franchises, this is as good as it gets.
This series still feels cheapened by Perk’s absence given the way Game 7 went down last year (Celtics led late but had to play the whole game without Perk), but should be a classic nonetheless.
[Start of tangent]
Clearly anything less than a championship will lead to Danny Ainge being burned in effigy by the Boston faithful for making that trade that broke up Boston’s core. Still, Ainge had unique perspective: He watched the great Celtics of the late 80s turn into the over-the-hill Celtics of the early 90s, when McHale’s knees, Bird’s back & other ailments forced their interior defense into decline.
Ainge himself was traded to Sacromento for frontline stiff Joe Kleine in ’89, DJ (Dennis Johnson) retired in ’90, & the Celtics started to deteriorate.
Bird’s confidence exceeded his shot in the early 90s, no playmaker emerged to help him besides the late Reggie Lewis, & the Pistons & Bulls passed Boston by. Ainge realized that unless this year’s Celtics drew Orlando’s Dwight Howard or LA’s Bynum, losing Perk wouldn’t hurt them as much as having a glaring hole in their bench scoring.
With Rondo & Perk on the floor last year, the Celtics were often playing 3-on-5 offensively late in games. If Green finally starts to play well, Doc can throw him out there to take the load off Pierce & Shuttlesworth. Pierce will likely be about done after guarding LBJ for 7 games, & as soon as Shuttlesworth loses the stamina to chase Wade or Korver around after running after Landry Fields or Toney Douglas in Round 1, his value could diminish. At that point Jeff Green is going to need to knock down a shot, as he did for the Thunder.
For all those who feel sorry for Perk being traded out of Boston, let’s be honest: He’s only 26 & got shipped to a team with a brighter long-term future in OKC. Plus, he turned down a solid contract offer from Boston last summer to extend his deal. Any player has to know that once you turn down an offer (no matter how fair it is), you risk being dealt at some point in the year. Plus, Perk missed most of this season, which hurt his trade value & made him a liability to re-sign.
That said, do you really want to break up your core now? This is probably Boston’s last good chance at a title, in part b/c the Bulls & Heat figure to be amazing next year. Personally, I wouldn’t have made the trade.
If Ainge was determined to move his starting center, why couldn’t he do better than Jeff Green & Krstic for Perk & Donkey (Nate Robinson)? I feel like Boston could’ve been part of the Melo deal or tried to reacquire Al Jefferson. Ainge could also have tried to get another unique player in return for Perk, such as Paul Millsap, Gerald Wallace, or some package of Camby/Batum/Fernandez from Portland, which loves to make deals. Of course, only Danny & the other GMs he talked to are privy to knowing what was available, so it’s hard to judge.
Still, the fundamental problem with that trade is Perk was the key to the Celtics nearly impenetrable interior defense. Pairing him with KG gave the team a ferocious identity that most opposing frontcourt players wanted nothing to do with, & now that is gone.
His absence negatively affects the team’s confidence in its defensive ability, & makes other teams not fear the Celtics hardly as much. We’ll never know how much the starter’s collective depression of losing Perk mid-season factored into their slide after the trade deadline, but they lost a chance at the top 2 seeds during the losing spree. This cost them a cake opponent in round 1 (Sixers, Pacers), & home court in round 2.
Here’s another reason why this was a bad trade: As a general rule, you should never trade a guy who is more valuable to your own team than he’ll be on anybody else’s roster. Perk fit that Boston team perfectly, & while he’ll be useful in OKC, the Thunder run much more than the Celtics, where a fleet-footed light center is more valuable. Perk will always be more of a commodity in a half-court offense, and will be back to help more against teams that play half-court offenses (which explains why OKC wanted him against the Lakers & Mavs). The Bulls & Magic both run half-court offenses, & the Heat will be forced to set up in the halfcourt if you limit Miami’s transition basket opportunities.
Sure, the Celtics should be a quality team in this year’s playoffs, but it’s disappointing we’ll never get a chance to find out what they could’ve been with Perk in the middle.
[End of tangent].
One minute the Celtics were preparing for the Nuggets. The next minute the roster was turned upside down, writes Chris Forsberg. 
The Celtics are rolling the dice and guessing who they’ll face in the playoffs with this trade, John Hollinger writes. 
With the addition of big man Kendrick Perkins, the Oklahoma City Thunder have become a legitimate contender in the West, Sarah Spain writes. 
Looking for more information on the Nets? ESPNNewYork.com has you covered. 
