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Redskins gave up way too much for RG3

11 Mar

Apparently some Browns fans are bummed that CLE missed out on Robert Griffin III (RG3) because the Washington Redskins are presumably going to draft him at #2 in this year’s NFL draft (presuming the Colts take Andrew Luck with the #1 overall pick).  If the Browns were willing to trade 3 1st round picks just to move up 2 spots, then thankfully they were only saved by an even more foolish franchise willing to give the St. Louis Rams a better deal for that #2 pick.

Enjoy dumping the ball off to Roy Helu & Jabar Gaffney in the district Mr. Griffin

Daniel Snyder’s Redskins front office jumped the shark, giving up an insane package to move up 4 spots in the 2012 draft.  In exchange for the 2nd overall pick, WAS gave STL the Redskins’ 1st round pick this year (6th overall), plus the Redskins’ #1 pick the next 2 years.  To make the deal look like a shady trade a seasoned Madden franchise owner would do to a CPU team, the Rams were even able to squeeze this year’s 2nd round pick (presumably 38th overall) out of WAS too.

Here’s the full story from ESPN.

If the Redskins were getting a once in a generation QB (like Andrew Luck), I could maybe see this trade being sensible given the fact that the league is so offense-oriented now & rewards teams with good QBs.  But all this for RG3??

Griffin is certainly an athletic specimen & did some nice things at a relatively small school (Baylor was a perennial doormat in the continually watered-down Big 12), but giving up this much for him is totally unjustifiable unless he becomes a transcendent player for WAS.  Transcendent as in Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Joe Montana – and even those guys were surrounded by Pro Bowl talent for most of their careers.

Griffin will probably be exciting to watch, but with no weapons it will probably be a Jake Plummer/Doug Flutie/Vince Young-type of exciting, not Michael Vick-type of exciting.  Even if he has Vick’s career (minus jail time), that’s not even good enough to justify the draft picks.  Vick has 2 career playoff wins, & only 1 trip to the conference championship (a 27-10 loss @ PHI in 2004), & his style of play has led to more injuries than deep playoff runs.  Yes Vick is great for fantasy football & using in Madden, but RG3 will need to be a top-shelf pocket passer to have continued success in the NFL.

Still think the Redskins’ didn’t give up too much?  Check out this NFL Draft Trade Value Chart, which explains that trading the Redskins’ 1st-round pick this year (6th overall) plus 1 future 1st round pick (given a middle of the 1st round draft value such as the 16th pick in the 2013 draft) is a fair trade (2600 value points for each side).

Based on the trade chart (which is an established system that smart teams seriously consider before making any trade involving draft picks), the Redskins gave away an extra 1st-rounder and 2nd-rounder rather than work to find a better deal elsewhere or trade down & draft a QB later.

 

Here’s how the deal shakes out:

Redskins receive:

2nd overall pick in 2012 draft: Worth 2600 points

Rams receive:

6th overall pick in 2012 draft: Worth 1600 points

38th overall pick in 2012 draft: Worth 520 points

WAS’ 1st round pick in 2013: Worth 1000 points if we generically assign it the 16th pick, though the ‘Skins have finished with an average record of 5-11 the last 3 years, so that pick & the 2014 pick could be much higher/valuable than just the 16th pick, especially if RG3 doesn’t pan out

WAS’ 1st round pick in 2014: Worth 1000 points as well if we generically assign the 16th pick here as well

Total for Rams’ haul: 4120 points

 

Credit the Rams for having the nerve to reportedly sit on CLE’s offer of 3 1st round picks & possibly more to patiently allow WAS to make STL the deal of the century!

Bear in mind that after last season’s lockout, the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) restructured rookie salaries, so the high draft picks don’t come in being the highest paid player on the team before they’ve played a down anymore.  In fact, the new rookie wage scale makes rookies much more affordable & therefore more salary-cap friendly than expensive veteran free agents.  Rookies will play just as well (or poorly) as they always have in the last 10-15 seasons, but now they won’t be paid nearly as much, which makes them much more valuable than in year’s past!

Smart teams like NE, PIT, BAL, IND, PHI, GB, etc. traditionally never over-reach for a high draft pick or trade up much, while teams with poor recent track records such as WAS, OAK, CLE, etc. go Bobby Beathard-style rather frequently…some food for thought.

Bobby Beathard as Chargers GM: "Wait, so you'll trade me your 2nd-round pick in this year's draft for my 1st-round pick next year? Let's do it!"

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Madden ’12 Hall of Fame edition features Marshall Faulk autograph

31 May

What the Faulk!?

That’s right, EA Sports is making a HOF edition of the new Madden game featuring the king of all-purpose yardage from The Greatest Show On Turf: Marshall Faulk.

This is the 2nd time Faulk has graced the Madden cover...does this mean Trung Canidate will be repping the game in a few years??

In a story straight out of “The Onion,” Marshall will be prominently displayed on the HOF game cover in all his bronze, foil embossed glory!  To sweeten the deal, EA is even throwing in an autographed trading card of Faulk.

If you’re old enough to drink, you probably remember growing up watching Faulk put the razzle dazzle on defenders left & right during the late 90s & turn of the century.  He even graced the cover of Madden ’03, so this 2nd bite at the apple just shows you how much love EA wants to give the soon-to-be-enshrined RB.

Ahh the good 'ole days...too bad for Faulk he only came away with 1 Super Bowl ring

Perhaps there will be an edition where you get a life-size bust of Marshall’s head in the coming years??

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2011 NFL Draft analysis of QBs & what Panthers & Browns should do in the 1st round

28 Apr

The draft is less than 4 hours away, & the Carolina Panthers will be on the clock before you know it.  If CAR is smart, it will trade down to add depth or draft that Alabama DT Marcell Dareus.  Most people think Auburn QB Cam Newton will go there, but I think that would be a disaster! 

Newton will be a bust almost anywhere he goes, but in CAR he’ll have limited weapons, new coach (Ron Rivera…yikes!), & he doesn’t have much familiarity with being under center (like so many of these draft prospects who all come out of the gun…thanks a lot college football). 

I watched that coaches camp show with Jon Gruden & thought Newton seemed cocky when he spoke to Chucky.  Newton knew some things about Xs & Os but wow does he think he has it all figured out!  Newton seemed a little unfocused at times too. 

Is Cam Newton basically a mobile Ryan Leaf? Until he yells at a reporter "Don't talk to me alright! Knock if off!" we won't know for sure.

I also watched most of the other Gruden shows, including his interview with TCU QB Andy Dalton.  Dalton looked like a bust charisma-wise & physically unimpressive.  WAS QB Jake Locker looked like a bust due to his apparent offensive comprehension & quick decision-making on the field, laid-back attitude & injury-prone style of play.  Auburn DT Nick Fairley could be great but appeared lazy & out of shape.  Worse, we only have 1 good year of tape to look back on with him. 

ARK QB Ryan Mallett is a hard worker & coach’s son, so he could be a quality NFL backup.  His ceiling in the league seems like Drew Bledsoe 2.0 – a fiery, hulking, immobile QB who sometimes throws bad picks in big games. 

The only one who impressed me in the Gruden interviews was Mizzou QB Blaine Gabbert.  Gabbert seemed charismatic, bright & poised – with a high football IQ.  Unfortunately he spent most of his time in the shotgun formation too, so who knows if he’ll be very good in the NFL, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a poor man’s Matt Ryan or better.

As for the Browns, I’m really only interested in LSU CB Peterson or NEB CB Amukamara at #6.  Both seem like relatively clean players on & off the field, and have legit physical tools to succeed at the next level.  I would take TX A&M OLB Miller if he were available, but I presume he’ll be gone by #6.  If Big Show (Browns President Mike Holmgren) can’t get any of those players, CLE should just trade down & grab 1-2 of the quality DEs or NTs in this draft.  Quinn, Bowers, Watt, Smith, Wilkerson should be had in the 12-25 range, & maybe even lower if the Browns are lucky/patient. 

I would even be willing to roll the dice on Fairley if CLE could get him at #12 or later.  The Browns D-line is awfully thin at this point (Brian Schaefering & Kenyon Coleman are the bookend DEs right now), so why not get value in a draft filled with those types of players? 

Most of the “draft experts” want the Browns to draft A.J. Green, & if he’s gone, then go after Julio Jones!  Research suggests that taking a WR high in the 1st round is very risky: http://thefloorseats.com/2011/04/28/nfl-draft-2011-preview-why-your-team-should-avoid-drafting-a-wide-receiver/ 

I just read an article by Mel Kiper was arguing that CAR should blow the 1st pick in the entire draft on Green!  It’s especially funny considering the worst teams (Lions, Bengals, Cardinals) always seem to be drafting WRs high, while Super Bowl teams like GB (Greg Jennings) & PIT (Mike Wallace) got their stud WRs in the 2nd round of past drafts or later.

The Browns could easily trade a 2nd or 3rd pick for a decent veteran WR & that position would be tolerable for another year.  RB & TE are set & the left side of the O-line is fine, so QB Colt McCoy should have enough to work with if we give him 1-2 decent WRs (trade for a Anquan Boldin-type player & then draft a WR in the 2nd or 3rd round). 

Experts keep talking about the explosive capability of Green or Jones, & they both seem like big-play WRs from the highlight stuff on ESPN.  McCoy doesn’t have a gigantic arm, & the Browns run the west coast offense (short passes), so a deep threat WR (Braylon Edwards-type guy) is not a huge help to CLE anyway.  As a result, the impact of Green or Jones would have a diminishing return in CLE.

Now, to the big question: Who is going to go Al Davis this year & draft a guy in the 2nd round that he could’ve drafted in the 5th round or later?  I’m referencing the Raiders atrocious ’09 draft, where they inexplicably spent their 2nd round pick (47th overall) on Michael Mitchell, a safety from Ohio U. who many had as a 5th round pick or lower. 

 

We can only hope Al Davis breaks out the overhead projector in the Oakland draft war room. Most of the younger scouts may not know what this device is, but that won't stop Al from displaying his top prospects on transparency film.

NFL Network’s Mike Mayock had Mitchell projected as a 7th round pick!  Mitchell was the 1st OU Bobcat to be drafted in the 5th round or higher since 1948! 

Let’s not forget the Raiders also blew the 7th overall pick in that ’09 draft on Darius Heyward-Bey, who was regarded by many as the 3rd or 4th best WR in that draft & an eventual bust.  Can’t wait to see who the Raiders draft this year!

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NFL Draft 2011 preview: Why your team should avoid drafting a wide receiver

28 Apr

Sorry Julio, not interested. Teams can't afford to swing & miss in the early rounds of the NFL draft, & WRs have the highest washout rate.

Wondering why the Browns should pass on A.J. Green or Julio Jones at #6?

Read this great article by ESPN.com’s John McTigue about drafting WRs early:

No position exemplifies the risk-reward scenario of the NFL draft more than quarterback.

Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf. Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers. Jake Long instead of Matt Ryan. JaMarcus Russell in 2007, Sam Bradford in 2010. Although the risk is always there when selecting a quarterback in the first round, the high reward of potentially finding a franchise signal-caller seems to be well worth it.

Each position on the field comes with its own risk-reward scenario. Tight ends, for example, have proved to be reliable and durable first-round picks. All 14 selected in the first round since 2001 were still active in 2010. Linebackers have been durable selections also, as have been defensive backs. 

Other positions, when drafted in the first round, bring greater risk, which can be defined by taking several factors into account.

Picks of positions that consistently underperform, miss time and see shortened careers should then be considered risky. One position in particular has proved to be the riskiest of all first-round choices.

If your team is considering drafting A.J. Green or Julio Jones, you might want to start worrying. And if that’s not enough, remember that the Detroit Lions spent four top-10 picks between 2003 and 2007 on wide receivers and only one of those picks is still with the team.

The NFL has become a more pass-happy league. In 2008, 57.2 percent of NFL plays were called passes and 45.7 percent utilized three or more wide receivers. In 2010, 59.0 percent of plays were called passes and 48.2 percent of plays utilized at least three wideouts.

The increase in passing and wide receiver usage has naturally led to an increase in wide receivers selected in the first round. From 2001 to 2010, wide receivers were the second-most drafted players in the first round, trailing only defensive backs (both corners and safeties).

 

First-Round WRs Since 1971

  Overall In Top 10
2001-2010 40 14
1991-2000 35 14
1981-1990 29 6
1971-1980 24 8

 

The 40 first-round picks since 2001 have combined to play 199 seasons in the NFL. Only 41 of those 199 seasons (20.6 percent) saw the receiver eclipse 1,000 receiving yards. Only 17 of the 40 receivers have registered a 1,000-yard season and just nine have done it more than once.

Even if you were to ignore their rookie seasons to account for an NFL learning curve, you’d have 159 seasons and 40 1,000-yard seasons (25.2 percent). Michael Clayton was the only receiver of the group with a 1,000-yard season his rookie year and he never had more than 484 in a season after that.

Compiling the stats from the cumulative 199 seasons for all 40 first-round receivers, the average season hasn’t been up to the standards of the top receivers in the league.

 

WR Production

Average season for wide receivers drafted in the first round since 2001 .

  Overall In Top 10
Games 13.6 13.2
Receptions 47.4 48.0
Rec. yards 635.5 666.0
Rec. TDs 4.2 4.3

 

Last season alone, 47 wideouts had 48 receptions, 45 had 653 receiving yards and 52 caught four or more touchdown passes.

Go back 20 years and first-round receivers have averaged 13.6 games, 47.5 receptions, 665.8 yards and 4.2 touchdowns per season. That list even includes Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison and Torry Holt, three of the top 10 in career receiving yards.

Other pieces of the puzzle when determining risk are durability and longevity.

No other position drafted since 2001 has seen a higher percentage of players inactive in 2010. Eleven of the 40 first-round receivers did not play in a game last season, meaning 72.5 percent of all first-round receivers played. Defensive backs (79.3 percent) were the only other position to dip below 80 percent.

 

Charles Rogers

Ron Schwane/US PresswireCharles Rogers, the Lions’ first-round pick in 2003, was out of the NFL by 2006.

 

Those 11 wide receivers averaged 5.1 seasons in their careers. Five of those receivers played their last games in or prior to 2006. Only two other offensive players drafted in 2001 or later (running back William Green and tackle Kenyatta Walker) were out by 2006.

Calvin Johnson is the only survivor of the Lions’ infamous string of first-round receivers. What happened in Detroit may have been comical, but it exemplified the perils of drafting a wideout in the first round.

Before picking Johnson in 2007, the Lions used those top-10 picks on Charles Rogers (2003), Roy Williams (2004) and Mike Williams (2005). Rogers and Johnson represent the extreme: Rogers is one of the 11 wide receivers picked in the first round since 2001 already out of the NFL and Johnson is one of the nine receivers to post multiple 1,000-yard seasons. Johnson is also one of the eight to make an AP All-Pro team and a Pro Bowl.

Since 2001, there has been a one-in-four chance a receiver would be out of the NFL within five years (Rogers). There is also a one-in-four chance to draft an elite talent (Johnson). Both Mike and Roy Williams represent the other guys — wild cards, if you will.

Mike Williams joined Rogers as a bust before reviving his career and becoming a serviceable receiver with the Seahawks (751 yards in 2010, three 100-yard games). Roy Williams started his career off strong, picking up 1,310 receiving yards in his third season. Since then, he has been traded to the Cowboys and hasn’t topped 900 yards in a season.

With teams passing more and using more three-wide receiver sets, the perception has become that drafting a first-round talent at wide receiver is a necessity. However, despite the increase in pass plays and three-wide receiver formations, wide receivers haven’t been targeted more.

 

Percentage of All Targets to WRs
(Last 3 Seasons)

  Overall In Red Zone
2010 59.2 57.7
2009 58.4 56.5
2008 59.1 57.1

 

Pass-catching tight ends and running backs are still just as important in offenses. As teams use more platoons at running back and as tight ends become more athletic, that is not likely to change.

The sheer volume of wide receivers in the draft gives teams plenty of opportunities to get a high-caliber player. On a per game basis, first-round receivers since 2001 have averaged 3.4 receptions, 48.0 yards and 0.3 touchdowns. Receivers drafted in the second round or later have averaged 2.1 receptions, 27.5 yards and 0.2 touchdowns per game. (Those numbers were compiled from the 235 wide receivers who played at least one game.)

When thinking of the difference between a first-round receiver and a second-round-or-later receiver, one 20-yard catch per game probably isn’t what comes to mind, but players like Greg Jennings, Chad Ochocinco, Vincent Jackson, Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall and Mike Wallace (among others) have helped close that gap.

A.J. Green and Julio Jones are the only two wide receivers projected to go in the first round this month, according to both Todd McShay’s and Mel Kiper’s most recent mock drafts. Both could translate to 1,000-yard talents, but statistically speaking, each has only a one-in-four shot to be a real difference maker.

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Great story on the history of the Madden video game franchise

22 Apr

Could this be the next Madden cover? All Brownies' fans hope so.

Click here to read this sweet ESPN: Outside The Lines recap by Patrick Hruby on the history of how EA Sports’ Madden franchise rose to prominence in the sports & gaming world.

 
 

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Gamers launch class action lawsuit against EA for its exclusive license on Madden & NCAA games, allege the license led to overcharging

8 Apr

Electronic Arts is being sued for its exclusive license on Madden, NCAA & Arena Football League games from the past several years (presumably starting with Madden ’06 & NCAA ’06). 

If you purchased certain Electronic Arts brand football video games between January 1, 2005 to the present you may be eligible to join the lawsuit!

Thanks to Peyton Hillis & online voters, we will actually get to see a Browns player grace the Madden cover in 2012. Amazing. I was starting to think the only way that would happen is if EA Sports was so desperate for new ideas it started using kickers (Phil Dawson) or longsnappers (Ryan Pontbriand) as the face of its NFL game.

EA will probably defeat the claim against it b/c antitrust cases often force the plaintiff to put on quite an impressive amount of evidence proving the game developer truly closed competition in the market.  This civil suit standard is technically called a preponderance of the evidence (51%), which sounds relatively easy but is usually not the case in the land of antitrust litigation (this regards competition & fairness in the marketplace). 

While most gamers obviously wish other vendors like 2K Sports & Midway could make NFL games to compete with EA, it’s not like EA runs the entire videogame universe & is going Tony Soprano, telling all other game developers they’d better not think about making a football game or there’s going to be trouble.  In fact, those Blitz: The League pro football games came out, & no one is stopping another game developer from following in Midway’s footsteps and making its own unlicensed game using retired NFL players or players not part of the NFLPA (NFL Players Association). 

Midway featured former all-pro linebackers Lawrence Taylor & Bill Romanowski’s likenesses/voices as “Quintin Sands” & “Bruno Battaglia” in its Blitz games with fictional teams to overcome EA Sports’ exclusive license with the NFL.  I’m sure few people think those types of games are anywhere near as good to play as the Madden games, & I’d agree with that.  Still, those games got released & the first Blitz game obviously did some business or else Midway would’ve have bothered to make a sequel.  This may make proving competition was closed a tough sell, but more power to ‘em! 

The great thing about this lawsuit is that it may make EA & the NFL think twice about pursuing another exclusivity license when the current one expires in 2012 (assuming it’s not renewed beforehand or extended further by a season-long NFL lockout in real life).  Lawsuits are bad press, & paying legal fees to defend yourself gets old fast.  Plus, most gamers hate this exclusive arrangement, so it’s a black eye for EA & the NFL.

Imagine if the NFL just lets the deal with EA run out, how great would that be?  This would finally mean diversity in the marketplace again, taking us back to the glory days of 2004!  Who remembers the joy of having your choice of:
1) arguably one of the best editions of Madden ever – Madden 2005, &
2) NFL 2K5.

Madden ’05 debuted the hit stick, & still let athletic QBs run & throw the ball accurately 70 yards down the field.  This wasn’t an extremely realistic passing attack, but was a blast to play.  That “big play” offensive model came off the heels of the Michael Vick-friendly Madden ’04 title.  Some Madden enthusiasts, including myself, still regard Madden ’04 as the most fun copy of Madden ever.

On the flip side in 2004 you had NFL 2k5, which had the fantastically low $19.99 MSRP & featured a relatively authentic ESPN broadcast presentation for the time.  Some people even thought this was a better game than the Madden edition that year.  I wouldn’t go that far, but who cares?  The point is Madden had some legit competition back then, & all was right with the world.

What does this mean for 2012 & beyond?  Video games are logically better when developers know another game has the chance to beat them in a competitive genre if each developer doesn’t bring its A game. 

So do we really need a class action lawsuit to get a better football video game?  It’s pretty clear that having multiple NFL videogames released each year would be the real victory for gamers, and we don’t necessarily need a judgment & court order to do that if the NFL takes action. 

All the NFL would have to do is decide exclusive licenses are too much of a hassle & make sure it can get more money collectively from all the football game developers than it could make from EA alone.  Once that happens, diversity in the marketplace returns, and it’s a touchdown dance for the consumer.

As for this lawsuit, EA will probably win b/c other football titles do exist.  Even if EA loses, most class-action plaintiffs will probably only get like 75 cents or a free download of “NFL Labor Dispute 2014″ or whatever new idea EA rolls out in a demo the year this case is resolved.  “Labor Dispute 2014″ could be like the ill-fated “Head Coach” EA series, where you attend meetings, run an office, fill out paperwork, manage a schedule…basically an awful, boring football RPG every 14-year old Madden fan will put down in favor of finishing his homework.

Whether EA wins or loses, the lawyers are probably still getting paid…so we can all look forward to that.

Here’s the details from the web page link that was emailed to members of the class action:

GEOFFREY PECOVER and ANDREW OWENS v. ELECTRONIC ARTS INC.
U.S. District Court (N.D. Cal. – Oakland Div.)
Case No. 08-cv-02820 CW

 

If You Purchased Certain Electronic Arts Brand Football Video Games
Between January 1, 2005 to the Present
You May Be a Class Member.

 

 

Membership as a class member in the Electronic Arts Litigation is the result of a lawsuit filed in the U.S. District Court, Northern District of California, Oakland Division (Case No. 08-cv-02820 CW).

What Is This Class Action About?

The class action lawsuit alleges violations of California’s antitrust and consumer protection laws in connection with the sale of certain football video games. Plaintiffs, purchasers of Electronic Arts’ football video games, claim that Defendant Electronic Arts entered into a series of exclusive licenses with the National Football League (NFL), National Football League Players’ Association (NFLPA), National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA), and Arena Football League (AFL), which Plaintiffs claim foreclosed competition in an alleged football video game market. Plaintiffs allege that this series of exclusive licenses caused customers who purchased certain football video games to be overcharged. 
Defendant Electronic Arts has denied any liability and all allegations of misconduct. The Court has not decided whether the Defendants did anything wrong, and this Notice is not an expression of any opinion by the Court about the merits of any of the claims or defenses asserted by any party to this litigation.

Who Are Class Members?

The Class includes all persons who, during the period January 1, 2005 to the present, purchased the Madden NFL, NCAA Football, or Arena Football League brand video games published by Electronic Arts with a release date of January 1, 2005 to the present. Excluded from the class are purchasers of software for mobile devices, persons purchasing directly from Electronic Arts, persons purchasing used copies of the relevant football video games, and Electronic Arts’ employees, officers, directors, legal representatives, and wholly or partly owned subsidiaries or affiliated companies.

What Should I Do? (Getting Further Information)

If you believe that you may be a class member (see above “Who Are Class Members”), you should get more detailed information about the class action and its potential effect on you and your rights. Further information can be obtained by going to the following website: http://www.easportslitigation.com. Additional information about the lawsuit may be obtained from Plaintiffs’ Counsel website at http://www.hbsslaw.com, or by calling Plaintiffs’ Counsel at 1-206-623-7292.

To Remain a Class Member

If you are a class member and you do nothing, you will be bound by the court’s rulings in the lawsuit, including any final Settlement or Judgment.

To Exclude Yourself from the Class(Deadline to Request Exclusion: June 25, 2011)

If you are a class member and you want to exclude yourself from the class and keep your right to sue Defendant, you must take further action before June 25, 2011. By that date, you must request exclusion in writing to this address:

Electronic Arts Litigation Exclusion
P.O. Box 8090
San Rafael CA 94912-8090

Or submit a request for exclusion electronically at the following website: www.easportslitigation.com

For further information about excluding yourself from the class go to the following website:
www.easportslitigation.com

Please do not telephone or address inquiries to the Court.
April 6, 2011. By Order of the U.S. District Court (N.D. Cal. – Oakland Div.).

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Pats-Raiders 2002 AFC Divisional Playoff game & the “Tuck Rule” reexamined

6 Apr

Next season’s NFL playoffs will mark the 10th anniversary of the infamous “Tuck Rule” game between the Raiders & Patriots.

That 2002 AFC Divisional Playoff game was defined by a potential sack-fumble of Tom Brady in the final 2 minutes that would’ve changed the game in Oakland’s favor.  The call on the field was a fumble recovered by the Raiders, only to be reversed upon review.  The Patriots, down 13-3 entering the 4th quarter & trailing 13-10 when that critical play occurred, used this break to make a late FG to force OT.

Thanks to the NFL rules in force at the time (unchanged until the 2011 playoffs), the Patriots won the OT coin toss and kicked a FG without the Raiders’ offense ever getting a chance to counter. 

It was Jon Gruden’s last game as a Raiders coach – Oakland owner Al Davis traded him shortly thereafter to Tampa Bay, where Gruden won the Super Bowl the very next year.  To capture the title, he beat his former Raiders team.

Here’s some history on the “Tuck Rule,” followed by some analysis of the controversial final call by the refs. 

The “Tuck Rule” has been on the books since 1999, & basically states that if a QB is making a passing motion & the ball falls to the ground, it’s incomplete.  If the QB is still in the process of trying to tuck the ball into his body or stops his throwing motion & the ball manages to go backwards/forwards before it hits the ground, it’s merely an incomplete pass, not a fumble. 

Once the QB has clearly tucked the ball ”into his body,” then from that point onward a loss of possession of the ball would be a fumble.  This is of course, an exception to the general rule about forward passes (being incomplete) versus situations where the ball flies backward off the QB when he is making no effort to tuck the ball (being a fumble). 

In that game, the refs made the initial call on the field in a snowstorm & from a distance, & initially gave the ball to the Raiders.  The refs initial impression was that Brady tucked the ball “into his body,” had possession in his body, & then fumbled it.  Upon review, it was decided that Brady made a throwing motion & then was in the process of tucking the ball into his body when the ball hit the ground, which resulted in an “incomplete pass,” not a fumble.  

When announcing the overturning of the initial fumble call, upon further review the ref stated that possession remained with NE.  The ref also mistakenly said the ball was going forward rather than backward (it was going backward).  Still, according to the rule above, as long as an effort to tuck is in the process of being made, it is not a fumble & whether the ball was going forward or backward is irrelevant.

The refs call to overturn & subsequent explanation ignores the most important aspect of the play: Charles Woodson’s strip of the ball.

Even if Brady intended to tuck the ball down rather than throw it, Raiders CB Charles Woodson cleanly stripped the ball from Brady after Brady reestablished control.  In other words, Brady intended to hold onto the ball & was in the process of tucking it when Woodson stripped it out of Brady’s hands. 

When Brady was bringing the ball down, he had control of it – it did not just happen to slip out of his hands.  If Brady has control of the ball when he’s brining it down, it’s a fumble.  If the ball just happens to slip out of Brady’s untouched hands while he’s attempting to throw or bring it down to fake a throw/tuck, it’s an incomplete pass rather than a fumble.

The problem with the Tuck Rule is that it appears intended to be applied when the ball slips away from the QB’s hands prior to contact.  It does not appear to address what happens when there is contact – suggesting the Tuck Rule does not apply when the QB is hit.  In that case, it’s the defensive player’s hit/strip/swipe that causes the fumble, and so the event is a fumble rather than an incomplete pass no matter how you look at it.

Fremont, OH's Charles Woodson got credit for 1 of the biggest forced fumbles in divisional playoff history...until the refs overturned the call on the field.

It has been the NFL’s policy to make rule changes after a season is over, & the Raiders Bruce Allen did complain after the fact.  Allen felt that the way the rule was written, the fumble call should have stuck.  In concert with the idea that there must be enough compelling video evidence to overturn the call on the field, I believe Allen’s contention was that the Tuck Rule does not clearly indicate how it is to be applied in the event of the ball going backwards (balls flying backwards are, as mentioned above, usually ruled as fumbles). 

Also, I believe he had the opinion that the “in the process of tucking” vs. “officially tucked” aspect of the rule was not clearly explained (when is the tucking process definitively complete?), thus creating a contextual ambiguity about the entire rule. 

This is very similar to legislative disputes about certain laws when they are being drafted as bills, with certain Congressman wanting to use particular words to create wiggle room in the language of a bill.  Those Congressman intentionally want that slight ambiguity in the bill to account for potential situations they haven’t even thought of yet, while other Congressman want the language of the bill more precise because they’re happy to sacrifice agility for clarity.

While it certainly appears that the fumble call should not have been overturned as a tuck & therefore an incomplete pass, there is still a significant faction of fans (most of them Patriots supporters) who think the play was not a fumble.

What’s clear is that the call changed NFL history: The Pats went on to stun the Steelers in Pittsburgh 24-17, then shocked the world by beating the heavily-favored Rams 20-17 in Super Bowl XXXVI. 

If the Raiders win that game, would Jon Gruden still have been traded?  The Raiders obviously had a great team – they came back next year with basically the same team & made it to Super Bowl XXXVII.

As for the Patriots, this cemented Brady as an emerging star & gave the Patriots the confidence & swagger they needed to win the next 2 Super Bowls (the ’04 & ’05 title games) following Gruden’s win with Tampa Bay.

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Your football fix for early April: Breaking down the zone blitz

5 Apr

Chris at SmartFootball.com did a nice job of analyzing Dick LeBeau’s zone blitz scheme, with plenty of pictures and some video to boot.  He also breaks down how Dom Capers implements the zone blitz for your education & enjoyment.

I’ve interviewed LeBeau & attended a Capers’ presser – both are defensive genuises who are a lot of fun to learn from.  It’s no surprise these seasoned NFL vets were the last 2 defensive coordinators standing at season’s end, facing off in the 2011 Super Bowl.

Chess Match: These defensive masterminds leave most Xs & Os vets in the dust.

Click here to read the article.

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NFL labor dispute: Union claims NFL’s offer ‘a front’; NFL fires back

14 Mar

Apparently the NFL & its owners don’t realize how replaceable pro football is.  Any Browns’ fans who followed the team prior to its move to Baltimore after the 1995 season remembers life without the NFL.  Sure, there were games on TV, but they didn’t include any teams you really cared about, so after awhile you just stopped watching.  Browns’ teams since haven’t been a whole lot of fun to watch either for the most part, but at least we have a team to follow. 

The days when Sunday was about getting homework, business work, or chores around the house done don’t seem that long ago.  The first few weeks you would remember that football was on, but be a little sad you didn’t have a team to cheer for that day.  Incredibly, within a matter of weeks, new hobbies, ambitions, and interests sprang up.

And now, all those options are better.  There are more sports, more TV stations, most everything offered in high definition too.  We’ve got games to play on the Internet, and on our cell phones for that matter.  There’s MMA, competitive eating, amazing online gaming, and movies in 3-D…all things that practically didn’t exist back when the Browns left in 1995.

Yeah, we're not too excited about the work stoppage either. Attention owners & players: The average fan does not like to watch millionaires bicker about how to get even more millions.

Want a more current example?  It wasn’t that long ago the NHL had a big labor dispute, and the sport is still trying to recover.  Their games used to be played on ESPN, now you have to hunt around to find them on Versus.  ESPN replaced the NHL games with college & NBA basketball, & seemingly upped its reporting for the latter two while diminishing its NHL coverage.  Hockey would love to be relevant, but people are so used to life without it on a major channel several nights a week that it’s hard to be a factor anymore.

So now NFL owners apparently want a “safer” league where players play more games.  The more games you play, the more chances for a concussion.  This does not sound like a plan to make the game safer.

We all know the owners want a bigger slice of the pie, b/c they’re taking all the financial risk.  Nevermind the players are taking all the health risk.  Adrian Peterson runs “all day” now, but in 15 years he may struggle to walk into a room.  Worse, once he gets there, he might forget what he went in the room for in the first place.

Hopefully at some point the NFL administration, its owners & players will come to a new labor agreement & we’ll have a normal draft, training camp period, and regular season.  If they don’t, they’ll likely be shocked at how quickly everybody just moves onto something else. 

After all, some of us have better things to do than spend 3+ hours watching 4-5 minutes of live game action (when you add up the few seconds each play takes – the rest is mostly just talking heads & commercials).

I happen to be watching some great NBA basketball right now & enjoying it.  NFL what??

Here’s a nice story on the NFL labor dispute from ESPN.com: 

WASHINGTON — Had enough of the he-said, he-said rancor between the NFL and players? Don’t expect it to go away anytime soon.

The outcome of the league’s first work stoppage since 1987 could be decided in court; the first hearing on the players’ request for an injunction to block the owners’ lockout was scheduled for April 6. In the meantime, there probably will be more of the same as Monday, when Kevin Mawae — president of the NFL Players Association, the now-dissolved union — accused the league of spreading “complete falsehoods and complete lies.

New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees, on the same conference call as Mawae, said the owners’ final offer Friday “was all a front.”

“I think it was all a show, with no real intent to get a deal done, other than just to say they made a proposal — that was no different than anything else that they proposed over the last couple years, couple months, couple weeks,” said Brees, a named plaintiff in the players’ antitrust lawsuit against the league.

Brees and Indianapolis Colts center Jeff Saturday, also a member of the players’ executive committee, complained that the players were not given enough time to assess and ask questions about the proposal owners made Friday morning.

“It just seems odd you would wait until Friday to put out a 20-point proposal, when each point has a number of different details in it,” Saturday said.

The NFL’s lead labor negotiator, Jeff Pash, said in a telephone interview with The Associated Press that Friday’s proposal contained various new provisions. He said owners offered a 10-year deal.

“I was frankly surprised that the [owners' labor] committee supported an offer as forthcoming as that was,” Pash said.

He also said the league would have been willing to agree to a third extension to the collective bargaining agreement, which originally was due to expire at the end of March 3, before two delays. But another extension, he said, “wasn’t really discussed in a serious way, because it was perfectly obvious they weren’t interested.”

By the end of Friday, talks broke off, the union announced it no longer would represent players, Brees and others filed suit, and the owners imposed a lockout at midnight.

“If they were saying they were not going to negotiate, under any circumstance, after 4 p.m. on Friday, don’t you think you have to ask yourself: Who was it who was in Washington putting on a show?” Pash said.

“We answered all the questions they had at the time, and we never put a deadline on it. We’re not the ones who were filing a lawsuit at 5 o’clock,” Pash said.

For all the things the owners and players disagree on, the two main sticking points are clear: how much money owners would get up front before dividing the rest of $9 billion in annual revenues with players, and the union’s demand for full financial disclosure.

“If we’re going to talk about ‘trust,’ maybe you should ask the owners if they trust each other to see each others’ books,” Mawae said. “I think that’s a greater issue than the players trusting the owners.”

Under the old CBA, owners received more than $1 billion to cover certain operating expenses, before other money was split with players. When negotiations began on a new deal, the owners sought an additional $1 billion off the top. Both sides acknowledge there was movement in that area.

But as the NFLPA’s lead spokesman, George Atallah, put it Monday: “The perception is that we were really, really close. The reality is we really, really weren’t.”

Because the NFLPA says it no longer is a union, but rather a trade association — a distinction the NFL calls a “sham” — Atallah said any decision to return to negotiations would be up to the lawyers representing the players, rather than NFLPA executive director DeMaurice Smith. Asked whether there would be talks before the April 6 hearing, Atallah replied: “As of now, no.”

An NFLPA source seconded that notion to ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter on Monday afternoon. The source expects a ruling on the players’ injunction request within a week of the hearing.

“No chance whatsoever,” the source said when asked if a settlement was possible. “There is no union anymore so it is impossible for collective bargaining to occur and there will be no settlement or even the discussion of it before this injunction is ruled on.”

The league, meanwhile, would prefer to return to the negotiating table. Starting Feb. 18, the sides met 16 times at federal mediator’s office.

“We would get back together with them tomorrow if they wanted to. We’re not the ones who walked out. We’re not the ones who renounced our status. We’re not the ones who filed litigation,” Pash said. “So we would get back together with them tomorrow. And if they have questions about our proposal, we’d answer them. If they have alternatives they want us to consider, we’d consider them.”

Mawae said that if the NFL contends the union walked away from mediation, “that’s a fabrication and a lie. We sat in that room … Tuesday and Wednesday of last week for 16 hours. … We met face-to-face a total of 30 minutes.”

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Fan from unsafe seating area calls Super Bowl XLV a “total disaster”

10 Feb

By Calvin Watkins of ESPNDallas.com

An NFL executive doesn’t blame fans for being angry over losing their seats at Super Bowl XLV.

NFL executive vice president Eric Grubman, in an interview with ESPN 970-AM in Pittsburgh on Thursday, summed up the situation as “awful.”

“We made the best of it. We screwed it up. I can’t change that,” Grubman said. “I’m a football fan and before I worked at the Super Bowl I took my young sons and my father … to see the New York Giants and if that would have happened to me, I would be furious.”

Temporary seats at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas, weren’t ready in time, forcing some fans to move and others to watch from standing-room spots. The league has come up with a number of different ways to compensate displaced fans, but at least one class-action lawsuit has been filed against the NFL, the Dallas Cowboys, and their owner, Jerry Jones.

With Jerry World turned into the planet Hoth, 400 fans seats were deemed unsafe due to the weather in Dallas. Must be global warming!

Commissioner Roger Goodell issued a statement Thursday expanding the league’s compensation to fans that were inconvenienced at the game. Some 2,000 fans in temporary seating who were delayed in getting to their seats “will receive a choice of either a refund of the face-value amount of their ticket or a free ticket to a future Super Bowl game of their choice.”

In the days after the Packers’ 31-25 Super Bowl win over the Steelers, the league has given the displaced fans two options: $2,400 — triple the face value of the ticket — and a ticket to next year’s Super Bowl, or a ticket to any future Super Bowl, with round-trip airfare and hotel accommodations included.

The plan Goodell announced Thursday is separate from the original package.

One of the angry fans is a granddaughter of the first president of the Green Bay Packers. She says she was among the 400 ticketholders forced to watch the Packers play the Pittsburgh Steelers from standing-room spots because their seats weren’t safe.

In a letter sent to the NFL, which she provided to The Associated Press, Peggy Beisel-McIlwaine says Jones should never be allowed to host another Super Bowl. She called her experience a “total disaster.”

Beisel-McIlwaine wrote that it took several hours — and miles of walking — before stadium and league officials finally led her and other displaced fans from their upper deck seats to a field level bar area behind the Pittsburgh Steelers bench — with no view of the field.

The 55-year-old woman from Michigan told the AP she received a call Wednesday from the NFL, and will be going to the league office Friday in New York to meet with a person who is handling her situation.

“I hope we can get this remedied quickly,” she wrote.

Beisel-McIlwaine’s grandfather was Andrew Blair Turnbull, the Packers’ first president and a member of the team’s Hall of Fame. Her father was Daniel C. Beisel, a Packers’ board member from 1968 until his death in 2009.

The NFL knew about the seating problem days before kickoff but still couldn’t solve the problem of fixing the seats. Grubman said it’s nearly impossible to get the temporary seats inspected until they’re completed. Still, 400 fans didn’t get to see the Super Bowl the way they wanted and that’s a problem.

“It’s a construction project when you put up these stands, these temporary stands,” Grubman said. “You put up the outside of the building and then you’ve got to finish it and there’s a lot of detail work and you can’t get the inspections until you do the finished detail work. And we just didn’t get that done. Literally, an hour before the game, we thought we were going to have all the seats and we just didn’t get it done.”

The big question concerning all this regards North Texas and whether the region will get another chance to host a Super Bowl. The next three Super Bowl sites have been decided and North Texas would like to host Super Bowl L.

“It was a regional approach to the Super Bowl and they did a great job and they were great hosts,” he said. “I tell you, I would go back there again. … I don’t think they took themselves out of the running. Do we plan it better next time? You betcha.”

NFL spokesman Brian McCarthy said Thursday that 40 employees have been assigned to help identify and assist fans who were left without seats. He said 260 of the ticketholders have either been located or have called the league. Some have shown up at the league’s New York office.

A Packers’ season ticketholder, Beisel-McIlwaine bought two tickets for the Super Bowl at face value, $800 apiece. When she arrived with her son at their seats — “in the nose bleed section, 425A seats 4 and 5″ — about three hours before the game, stadium officials said they weren’t ready. Eventually, they were told the seats weren’t going to be available at all and, like many others in the same predicament, ended up without a view at field level, forced to watch the game on television.

During her ordeal, Beisel-McIlwaine wrote that she was sent from one ticket office to another and back again, then back to her seats, which by then were covered with a black tarp.

“We were getting nowhere,” she wrote in her letter to the NFL. “Everyone was passing it off to someone else and no one seemed to know what was going on. It was truly a run around.”

Beisel-McIlwaine wrote that she “grabbed one of the few tables and two chairs and we were joined shortly by two other Packer fans. There were many folks in this bar now, many of which had to sit on the floor.”

Free food and drink was available, but even watching on TV was a problem: The picture was supplied by the NFL feed, and the audio was from the Fox telecast.

“They were not in sync with each other and it was very difficult to determine what down or how many yards there were to go unless we listened very closely,” Beisel-McIlwaine wrote.

There was a benefit: After the Packers won and the Lombardi Trophy was presented, “they did lead us out onto the field so we could get a look and actually were able to thank many of the Packer players and coaches.”

Beisel-McIlwaine said she wore a pedometer on Super Bowl Sunday, and clocked 21,823 steps. Using the commonly accepted average of about 2,000 steps per mile, that translates to more than 10 miles, up and down steps and through crowded concourses.

“I’m 55 and fortunately in good shape and health, but I saw many in wheel chairs and one person on crutches,” she said.

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